本文分析了20年来我国水稻生产、消费和贸易的变化，认为只有“保红线（即保种植面积3 000万hm2，稻谷总产2亿t）攻单产”才能保证我国稻谷95%以上的自给率。并预测了2030年我国稻谷的供求趋势，认为只要确保种植面积年增长率达0.4%、总产年增长率达1.0%，供求关系将趋平衡，并略有节余。为确保我国中期稻谷生产与消费趋于合理区间，提出了“六保”发展措施。

In the paper, changes of production, consumption, trade and supportive policy of rice in Chna were analyzed by using the data in recent 20 years. The supply and demand trends of rice in 2030 in China were forecasted. For the future, if rice planting area grow at an annual rate of 0.4% and the total production grow at an annual rate of 1.0%, the relationship between supply and demand will be trended more balance and a slight surplus. The author put forward to quarante the red line（i.e. the planting area of 30,000,000 hm2, total rice yield of 200,000,000 t） and make great efforts to increase yield per unit area to ensure the rice self-sufficiency rate more than 95% in China. In order to ensure China rice production and consumption trended to a reasonable interval, the six  guarantee development measures must be implemented.