为客观、定量的预测衢州市早稻产量，应用衢州市2015年、2016年4月的日气象观测资料，根据早稻苗期出现低温冷害灾害模型，计算出综合评估指标，并进行实际应用。结果表明，衢州市早稻低温冷害评估模型是客观、有效可行的，适宜推广应用。通过综合评价模型计算，2015年衢州春季早稻低温冷害综合评价指标 K=0.3，早稻春季低温冷害强度为轻度；2016年衢州春季早稻低温冷害综合评价指标 K=-1.5，未发生早稻春季低温冷害灾害。虽然2015年4月上旬衢州市持续阴雨天气，出现了“倒春寒”天气，2016年4月2个时段连续阴雨，但总体温度较高，2年均没有出现死秧烂苗现象。通过模型定量评估早稻秧苗期产生低温冷害的频率和程度，将有利于应对春季低温冷害对水稻生产安全构成的严重威胁，对保障粮食生产安全具有重要意义。

In order to provide an objective and quantitative reference for early rice yield prediction，based on the meteorological observation data of Quzhou in April 2015 and 2016, the comprehensive evaluation index was calculated according to the model of low temperature damage in early rice seedling stage, and applied in actual production. The results showed that the evaluation model was objective, effective and feasible, which was suitable for popularization and application in production. Through comprehensive evaluation model calculation, the comprehensive evaluation index of chilling injury of early spring rice in Quzhou in 2015 was 0.3, and the cold disaster intensity of early spring in spring was slight. The comprehensive evaluation index of chilling injury of early spring rice in Quzhou in 2016 was -1.5, and early spring chilling injury did not occur. Although in early April 2015 the city continued rainy weather and 2 consecutive rainy days occurred in April 2016, but the overall temperature was higher, and there was no death seedling and rotten seedling in two years. The quantitative evaluation of early rice seedling from chilling injury would help us to deal with the threat of serious chilling injury in spring, and is of great significance to guarantee the safety of grain production.