在分析我国大米处于适度进口的基础上，指出了我国大米安全的若干风险，即国内大米消费人口有增无减，国内大米生产增长空间不大，水资源、土壤环境等影响水稻生产的问题仍然严重，“镉大米”成为大米质量安全的痛点，粮源、贸易与禁运风险存在过或可能再度发生，大米进口毕竟有了量的突破,大米进口集中在个别国家可能导致真需粮时无粮，低价大米长期流入国内不利于保护稻农利益,大米实际进口量大于统计进口量可能误导决策。

Based on the analysis of the moderate import of rice in China, this paper points out some risks of rice safety in China, that is, the domestic rice consumption population is increasing, the domestic rice production growth space is small, the water resources, soil environment and other issues affecting rice production are still serious. “Cadmium rice” has become the pain point of rice quality and safety. The risk of grain source, trade and embargo has existed or may happen again. After all, rice imports have a breakthrough, rice imports are concentrated in individual countries that may result in no food when it is really needed. Long-term inflow of low-priced rice is not conducive to protecting the interests of rice farmers. The actual imports of rice are greater than the statistical imports may mislead decision-making.