南方稻区是中国双季稻的优势主产区,双季稻绿色生产效率的提升受到广泛关注。本文基于2003—2023年省级面板数据,构建了包含非期望产出的投入产出指标体系,采用DEA-SBM模型测算南方稻区双季稻的绿色全要素生产率(GTFP),并运用多元线性回归模型对GTFP的影响因素进行实证分析,同时开展稳健性检验。结果表明:(1)在研究期内,传统全要素生产率(TFP)指数普遍高于GTFP指数。其中,GTFP指数年均值为1.010 4,表明南方稻区双季稻GTFP呈逐步改善态势。(2)南方稻区10个省(自治区)双季稻GTFP的增长驱动因素存在明显差异。具体来看,浙江、安徽、福建、湖北四省GTFP增长由绿色技术进步(GTC)与绿色技术效率(GEC)双轮驱动;湖南、广西、海南三省(自治区)主要依赖GTC推动;广东、江西、云南三省则以GEC提升为主要动力。从区域粮食生产和消费特征看,粮食主产区的GTFP增长为双轮驱动型,粮食主销区为GTC驱动型,粮食产销平衡区为GEC驱动型。(3)从GTFP的分解项来看,在“双碳”目标背景下,南方稻区双季稻GTFP增长主要源于GTC的贡献。(4)农业经济发展水平、产业结构指数、种植效益水平对南方稻区双季稻GTFP具有显著的正向影响;而技术进步水平、环境规制强度则呈现显著的负向影响。

The southern rice region is a dominant area for double-cropping rice production in China, and the improvement of its green production efficiency has attracted widespread attention. Based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2023, this study constructs an input-output indicator system that incorporates undesirable outputs. The DEA-SBM model is employed to measure the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of double-cropping rice in the region, and a multiple linear regression model is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of GTFP, with robustness tests conducted. The results show that: (1) During the study period, the traditional total factor productivity (TFP) index was generally higher than the GTFP index. The annual average value of GTFP index was 1.010 4, indicating a gradual improvement in the GTFP of double-cropping rice in the southern rice region of China. (2) There were significant differences in the driving factors of GTFP growth among the ten provinces (autonomous regions) in the southern rice region of China. Specifically, GTFP growth in Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, and Hubei was driven by both green technological change (GTC) and green technical efficiency(GEC); Hunan, Guangxi, and Hainan relied mainly on GTC; while Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Yunnan were primarily driven by improvements in GEC. From the perspective of regional grain production and consumption characteristics, GTFP growth in major grain-producing areas followed a dual-driver pattern, major grain-consuming areas were driven by GTC, and grain-balanced areas depended on GEC. (3) Decomposition analysis of GTFP shows that under the “dual carbon” goals, the growth of GTFP in the southern rice region’s double-cropping rice sector was mainly attributed to GTC. (4) Agricultural economic development level, industrial structure index, and planting benefit level had significant positive effects on GTFP, whereas technological progress level and environmental regulation intensity exerted significant negative impacts.