Germination rate is an important quality indicator for seeds. There is a specific method for determining seed germination rate in the “Regulations for Inspection of Crop Seeds”（GB/T 3543.1~7—1995）, but this method has a long experimental period and cannot quickly predict seed quality. Huayou 14 is a major hybrid japonica rice variety cultivated in Shanghai, with an annual planting area accounting for over 50.00% of the hybrid rice planting area in Shanghai. An experiment was conducted on the seeds of Huayou 14, and it was found that the 3 d germination potential and 15 d germination rate of Huayou 14 seeds was significantly correlated (r=0.965). By comparing various function model， it was found one-variable quadratic functional model have highest fitting, germination rate can be accurately predicted by germination potential. Further research also found that the germination potential of Huayou 14 seeds is related to the field emergence rate. The above results are of great significance for quickly and accurately predicting the seed quality of Huayou 14 and ensuring the safety of hybrid japonica rice in Shanghai.