气候变暖和降水分配变化导致盘锦地区水稻早熟增产
#共同第一作者
收稿日期: 2021-01-22
网络出版日期: 2021-05-20
基金资助
辽宁省气象局科学技术研究项目“大洼主要农作物气象灾害影响指标及防御对策研究”
Climate Warming and Changes in Precipitation Distribution Lead to Early Maturity and Increased Yield of Rice in Panjin
#Co-first author
Received date: 2021-01-22
Online published: 2021-05-20
利用盘锦地区1980—2018年水稻生育期资料和气象观测数据,采用气候倾向率、累计距平、M-K检验和一阶差分等方法分析了盘锦地区气候特征、水稻生育期特征、水稻生育期与气候因子的关系及生育期降水分配指数对产量的影响。结果表明,1980—2018 年盘锦地区水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、积温均呈上升趋势,降水量、日照时数均呈下降趋势。1980—2018年,盘锦地区水稻播种期、出苗期和成熟期呈推后趋势,推后速率分别为1.9 d/10 a、1.8 d/10 a、0.8 d/10 a,而水稻分蘖期和抽穗期呈提前趋势,提前速率分别为2.1 d/10 a、0.7 d/10 a;水稻全生育期呈缩短趋势,缩短速率为1.1 d/10 a,其中播种至出苗期和出苗至分蘖期呈缩短趋势,缩短速率分别为0.1 d/10 a和3.9 d/10 a,分蘖至抽穗期和抽穗至成熟期呈延长趋势,延长速率分别为1.4 d/10 a和1.5 d/10 a,这表明水稻存在早熟趋势,主要反映在营养生长期缩短、生殖生长期延长,有利于水稻增产。导致盘锦地区水稻早熟增产的主要原因在于全生育期的温度升高、播种至出苗期的充足水分和出苗至分蘖期的降水减少。
张美玲, 周莉, 周广胜 . 气候变暖和降水分配变化导致盘锦地区水稻早熟增产[J]. 中国稻米, 2021 , 27(3) : 51 -57 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8082.2021.03.010
Using the growth duration of rice and meteorological observation data in Panjin from 1980 to 2018, the methods of linear tendency estimation, cumulative anomaly, MK test and First order difference were used to analyze the climate characteristics, characteristics of growth duration of rice,the relationship between rice growth duration and climate factors, influence of Precipitation Distribution Index of growth duration on yield. The results showed that the average daily temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and accumulated temperature of the rice growing season in Panjin from 1980 to 2018 all showed an upward trend, and the precipitation and sunshine hours all showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2018, the sowing, seeding and maturing of rice showed a postponed trend in Panjin, with postponed rates of 1.9 d/10 a, 1.8 d/10 a, 0.8 d/10 a respectively, and the tillering and heading of rice showed an advance trend, with advance rates of 2.1 d/10 a and 0.7 d/10 a, respectively. The whole growth duration of rice showed a shortening trend, and the shortening rate was 1.1 d / 10 a. The sowing-seeding and seeding-tillering showed a shortening trend, and the shortening rates were 0.1 d/10 a and 3.9 d/10 a. The tillering-heading and heading- maturing period is prolonged, and the extension rates are 1.4 d/10 a and 1.5 d/10 a, respectively. This indicates that the re is a tendency of early maturity in rice, which is mainly reflected in the shortened vegetative growth period and prolonged reproductive growth period, which is conducive to increasing yield of rice. The main reasons leading to early rice maturity and increased yield of rice are the rised temperature during the whole growth duration and sufficient water in the sowing-seeding and the reduced precipitation in the seeding- tillering in Panjin.
Key words： rice; growth duration; climate warming; precipitation distribution; Panjin
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