气候变暖和降水分配变化导致盘锦地区水稻早熟增产

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-8082.2021.03.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用盘锦地区1980—2018年水稻生育期资料和气象观测数据,采用气候倾向率、累计距平、M-K检验和一阶差分等方法分析了盘锦地区气候特征、水稻生育期特征、水稻生育期与气候因子的关系及生育期降水分配指数对产量的影响。结果表明,1980—2018 年盘锦地区水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、积温均呈上升趋势,降水量、日照时数均呈下降趋势。1980—2018年,盘锦地区水稻播种期、出苗期和成熟期呈推后趋势,推后速率分别为1.9 d/10 a、1.8 d/10 a、0.8 d/10 a,而水稻分蘖期和抽穗期呈提前趋势,提前速率分别为2.1 d/10 a、0.7 d/10 a;水稻全生育期呈缩短趋势,缩短速率为1.1 d/10 a,其中播种至出苗期和出苗至分蘖期呈缩短趋势,缩短速率分别为0.1 d/10 a和3.9 d/10 a,分蘖至抽穗期和抽穗至成熟期呈延长趋势,延长速率分别为1.4 d/10 a和1.5 d/10 a,这表明水稻存在早熟趋势,主要反映在营养生长期缩短、生殖生长期延长,有利于水稻增产。导致盘锦地区水稻早熟增产的主要原因在于全生育期的温度升高、播种至出苗期的充足水分和出苗至分蘖期的降水减少。

关键词: 水稻, 生育期, 气候变暖, 降水分配, 盘锦地区

Abstract:

Using the growth duration of rice and meteorological observation data in Panjin from 1980 to 2018, the methods of linear tendency estimation, cumulative anomaly, MK test and First order difference were used to analyze the climate characteristics, characteristics of growth duration of rice,the relationship between rice growth duration and climate factors, influence of Precipitation Distribution Index of growth duration on yield. The results showed that the average daily temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and accumulated temperature of the rice growing season in Panjin from 1980 to 2018 all showed an upward trend, and the precipitation and sunshine hours all showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2018, the sowing, seeding and maturing of rice showed a postponed trend in Panjin, with postponed rates of 1.9 d/10 a, 1.8 d/10 a, 0.8 d/10 a respectively, and the tillering and heading of rice showed an advance trend, with advance rates of 2.1 d/10 a and 0.7 d/10 a, respectively. The whole growth duration of rice showed a shortening trend, and the shortening rate was 1.1 d / 10 a. The sowing-seeding and seeding-tillering showed a shortening trend, and the shortening rates were 0.1 d/10 a and 3.9 d/10 a. The tillering-heading and heading- maturing period is prolonged, and the extension rates are 1.4 d/10 a and 1.5 d/10 a, respectively. This indicates that the re is a tendency of early maturity in rice, which is mainly reflected in the shortened vegetative growth period and prolonged reproductive growth period, which is conducive to increasing yield of rice. The main reasons leading to early rice maturity and increased yield of rice are the rised temperature during the whole growth duration and sufficient water in the sowing-seeding and the reduced precipitation in the seeding- tillering in Panjin.

Key words: rice, growth duration, climate warming, precipitation distribution, Panjin

中图分类号:

S511

张美玲, 周莉, 周广胜. 气候变暖和降水分配变化导致盘锦地区水稻早熟增产[J]. 中国稻米, 2021, 27(3): 51-57.

Meiling ZHANG, Li ZHOU, Guangsheng ZHOU. Climate Warming and Changes in Precipitation Distribution Lead to Early Maturity and Increased Yield of Rice in Panjin[J]. China Rice, 2021, 27(3): 51-57.

图/表 6

图1 1980—2018年盘锦地区平均气温特征

图2 1980—2018年盘锦地区水稻全生育期积温累积距平

图3 1980—2018年盘锦地区水稻全生育期的降水量特征

图4 1980—2018 年盘锦地区水稻生育期变化

表1 1980-2018年盘锦地区水稻生育期与气候因子的相关系数R

图5 盘锦地区水稻产量与PDI的关系 a、b分别为营养生长阶段降水分配指数、生殖生长阶段降水分配指数和产量的关系。

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