中国稻米 ›› 2023, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 32-37.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8082.2023.04.006

• 专论与研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

浅析稻谷比价偏低对我国水稻产业的影响

郑红明1(), 郑品卉2   

  1. 1浙江衢州新农都实业有限公司,浙江 衢州 324000
    2中央民族大学,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2023-01-22 出版日期:2023-07-20 发布日期:2023-07-26
  • 作者简介:第一联系人:

    398989096@qq.com

Analysis on the Influence of Low Rice Price on Chinese Rice Industry

ZHENG Hongming1(), ZHENG Pinhui2   

  1. 1Zhejiang Quzhou Xinnongdu Industrial Limited Company, Quzhou, Zhejiang 324000, China
    2Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2023-01-22 Online:2023-07-20 Published:2023-07-26
  • About author:First author contact:

    398989096@qq.com

摘要:

近年来,受新冠病毒感染疫情反复、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、气候灾害频发等各种因素影响,国内国际粮食价格波动剧烈,涨幅较大。但国内稻米市场总体走势平稳,涨幅不大,成为我国粮食安全名副其实的“压舱石”。由于稻谷价格滞涨,稻谷比价逐渐在三大谷物中垫底,种植效益在三大谷物中也处于偏低水平,导致农户种植水稻的积极性下降,“水改旱”现象逐渐增多,预计短期这种现象难以改变。由于稻谷比价较低,替代需求持续增加,加上国内外大米价差也大幅缩小,后期我国大米进口有望减少,国内稻谷库存去化加快,预计后期国内稻米市场供需宽松的局面将发生改观。因此,需未雨绸缪,提前做好应对措施,确保中国人的饭碗牢牢端在自己手里。

关键词: 稻米, 水稻产业, 比价, 产量, 进口, 中国

Abstract:

In recent years, domestic and international food prices have fluctuated sharply and increased significantly due to the repeated COVID-19 pandemic, heightened geopolitical tensions and frequent climate disasters. However, the overall trend of the domestic rice market is stable, and the increase is not remarkable, which has become the veritable “ballast stone” of Chinese food security. Due to the stagflation of rice price, the ratio of rice price gradually ranks the bottom among the three main cereals, and the planting benefit is also at a low level among the three main cereals, which leads to the decrease of farmers' enthusiasm in planting rice and the gradual increase of the phenomenon of “water to drought”. All that mentioned above is expected to be difficult to change in the short term. Due to the low rice price, the substitution demand continues to increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign rice also narrows significantly. Chinese rice imports are expected to decrease in the later stage, and domestic rice inventory reduction is accelerated. It is expected that the situation of the loose supply and demand of domestic rice market will change in the later stage. Therefore, it is necessary to take precautions and measures in advance to ensure that the rice bowl of the Chinese people is firmly in own hands.

Key words: rice, rice industry, price ratio, yield, import, China

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