关键词: 稻米, 水稻产业, 比价, 产量, 进口, 中国

Abstract:

In recent years, domestic and international food prices have fluctuated sharply and increased significantly due to the repeated COVID-19 pandemic, heightened geopolitical tensions and frequent climate disasters. However, the overall trend of the domestic rice market is stable, and the increase is not remarkable, which has become the veritable “ballast stone” of Chinese food security. Due to the stagflation of rice price, the ratio of rice price gradually ranks the bottom among the three main cereals, and the planting benefit is also at a low level among the three main cereals, which leads to the decrease of farmers' enthusiasm in planting rice and the gradual increase of the phenomenon of “water to drought”. All that mentioned above is expected to be difficult to change in the short term. Due to the low rice price, the substitution demand continues to increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign rice also narrows significantly. Chinese rice imports are expected to decrease in the later stage, and domestic rice inventory reduction is accelerated. It is expected that the situation of the loose supply and demand of domestic rice market will change in the later stage. Therefore, it is necessary to take precautions and measures in advance to ensure that the rice bowl of the Chinese people is firmly in own hands.

Key words: rice, rice industry, price ratio, yield, import, China