Abstract:

As a key provincial public brand cultivated by Hubei Province, “Jianghan Rice” shoulders the critical mission of driving the transformation of Hubei’s rice industry from “scale-driven expansion” to “quality-oriented strengthening”. Its core production region, the Jianghan Plain, has emerged as Hubei’s premium rice-producing area, leveraging its unique climatic endowments of abundant temperature, sunlight, and water resources, as well as innovative practices in eco-integrated farming models such as rice-fish co-culture. Against the backdrop of global climate warming, the Jianghan Plain has become the most pronounced warming zone in Hubei over the past six decades. This warming trend yields dual impacts: on one hand, increased accumulated temperature extends the optimal growth period for rice, facilitating yield improvements and expanding the cultivable boundaries of medium- and late-maturing varieties northward and westward; on the other hand, the intensified frequency of extreme climate events—including torrential rains/floods, droughts, and heatwaves—poses severe threats to the stability of rice yields and quality. Through a systematic climate-centric analysis, this paper unveiled the climatic opportunities and risks confronting the development of the “Jianghan Rice” industry: (1) Adaptability disparities among rice varieties to “warm-humid” climate conditions, with certain varieties at risk of shortened growth durations and heightened pest/disease pressures; (2) The sensitivity of key quality-forming stages (grain-filling period) to high-temperature stress, directly impacting rice grain appearance quality and taste attributes; (3) The imperative for systemic reforms in cropping systems triggered by climate warming, which places traditional maturity-type and variety combinations under pressure for reconfiguration. To address these challenges, this paper proposed three strategic pathways: (1) Establishing a “Jianghan Rice” variety breeding and iteration system, prioritizing the development of new varieties with heat tolerance, lodging resistance, and consistent premium yields; (2) Optimizing the spatial layout of industry with climate adaptability by instituting a “variety-region-technology” matching mechanism grounded in climate zoning; (3) Innovating meteorological risk mitigation and insurance service models through the development of climate index insurance products covering the entire industrial chain, thereby constructing a closed-loop management system integrating “pre-disaster early warning, in-disaster response, and post-disaster compensation”.

Key words: Jianghan Rice, climate risks, meteorological risk mitigation service

摘要：

“江汉大米”作为湖北省重点培育的省域公用品牌，肩负着推动湖北稻米产业由“大”向“强”转型的重要使命。其核心产区——江汉平原，凭借得天独厚的温、光、水等气候资源禀赋，以及稻渔共生等生态综合种养模式的创新实践，成为湖北优质水稻主产区。在全球气候变暖的大趋势下，江汉平原成为湖北近60年来升温最为显著的区域。气候变暖带来双重影响：一方面，积温增加延长了水稻适宜生长期，有利于产量提高，中晚熟品种的种植边界向北和向西拓展；另一方面，暴雨洪涝、干旱缺水及高温热害等极端气候事件频发，严重影响水稻产量和品质的稳定性。本文基于气候视角的系统分析，揭示了“江汉大米”产业发展的气候机遇与风险挑战：一是水稻品种对“暖湿化”气候的适应性差异，部分品种面临生育期缩短、病虫害加剧风险；二是优质米形成关键期（灌浆结实期）对高温胁迫的敏感性，直接影响稻米外观品质和食味值；三是气候变暖引发的种植制度变革需求，传统熟制与品种搭配面临重构压力。针对上述问题，本文提出三大战略路径：一是构建“江汉大米”品种选育与迭代体系，重点培育耐高温、抗倒伏、优质稳产的新品种；二是优化产业气候适应性空间布局，建立基于气候区划的“品种-区域-技术”匹配机制；三是创新气象风险减量与保险服务模式，开发覆盖全产业链的气候指数保险产品，构建“灾前预警-灾中响应-灾后补偿”的闭环管理体系。

关键词: 江汉大米, 气候风险, 气象风险减量服务